THE SILENT STANDOFF

Ilayda Nijhar

There is no secrecy in the ever apparent threat the expansion of the Russian military complex poses upon the Western world. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, many eagerly anticipated how Russia would revive its own military after its perennial downfall. Under Putin’s leadership, however, Moscow’s main objective has been to keep military development directly linked to that of nuclear development and how it must be of a supererogatory standard. Carrying forth this objective has not been docile in the least with consistent opposition from other nations.  Yet despite the belittlement, Russia has successfully paved its way to once again become a serious military force in both Europe and Asia which is now evermore perceived as a serious threat to NATO and EU member states alike.

We are all aware of present political dilemmas which involve leading powers and their disagreement over specific matters such as the Syrian conflict or the Ukrainian crisis to name but a few. These recent events have proven to widen relations with Russia and highlight the continuing force of NATO. Yet while these political disputes continue to dominate news headlines, we must not turn a blind eye to a region in the world which may indeed be of much more importance. The High North is gaining much attention following the melting of polar ice caps which is uncovering vast amounts of energy deposits and rich resources which are sought after by nearby nations. Eight countries have territory around the region which include: Denmark, Finland, Canada, Norway, USA, Iceland, Sweden and Russia. The US estimates that 15% of the remaining oil in the world along with 30% of natural gas deposits will be exposed due to the melting of the ice caps. These precious resources are still buried deep under the Arctic but it is only a matter of time before it will be accessible for use. But who will be there to rightfully claim these new resources? Already tensions have begun to heighten within the region with military action taken by all neighbouring countries. Yet this tension is not simply fuelled on the fact that they all want a claim to the resources but more so that all the nations are NATO members bar Russia. Although there has been no reported problems thus far, the situation is being dealt with on delicate terms. Recent NATO activity in Eastern Europe suggests that if needs be, there will be no hesitation in retaliation should they see fit. This is especially the case if Finland and Sweden’s flirtations with the idea of NATO membership is negatively received by Russia. As such, Russia feels even more determined to maintain control of maritime traffic and overall control of the area. They have made it absolutely clear that they believe it is their lawful right to access the resources and will ensure that they do. In order to establish their control in the region, Russia has already begun to reactivate 6 military bases in the Arctic which have not been touched since the end of the Soviet Union. It is also no secret that they have invested in building many more military installations in the region which will aid them in boosting their dominance in the area. The construction of six new airfields are expected to be in use by 2017 with the Kremlin deploying hundreds of soldiers to the bases by the end of 2016 with special teams being specifically trained in Arctic warfare.

But if only these developments were carried forth without repercussion. The US has already taken reactionary measures by deploying troops into Iceland for the first time in a decade following their concern of increased Russian military activity in the area. While some may view the US’s decision as one of caution, others can see it as them advancing against what they see as an apparent threat. Although the situation in the North is currently not labelled as an immediate cause for concern, it is interesting that attention isn’t being drawn to it especially considering the risk it carries with it. Russia is once again sending shock waves across the world with its military might and it seems that it has chosen the Arctic to display the power it possess. This theory is validated by the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin officially stating: “It is our territory, it is our shelf, and we’ll provide its security”. The melting of the ice caps will not only provide valuable mineral deposits but also pave the way for faster shipping routes. It is known that the Northern Sea Route will be accessible to shipping for 9 months out of 12 and will approximately reduce travel time by around 65%. If it was not already obvious that the Arctic was in the national interests of Russia, the construction of largest icebreaking fleet in the globe is already well under way. Models of the new icebreakers indicate that they will be nuclear powered and will have the ability to break through ice as thick as 3 meters. Russia already posses many more icebreakers than any country and will continue to strengthen its icebreaking fleet.

The most vital question which now needs to be asked is: what happens next? For the time being tension levels remain steady with little interaction between the countries. Russia continues to bolster its position in the Arctic while carefully avoiding confrontation with neighbouring countries especially due to their NATO nature. But the battle is only beginning. If so much initiative is being driven into military investment in the region by Russia, it must mean much more than simply ensuring a hold of the resources. The Arctic operations are an example of Russia demonstrating to the world of its military capabilities and that its ability should not be in any way undermined. It is also a region which holds the potential for severe conflict to occur, which could have serious consequences if alliances such as NATO get involved. For now we sit and await for the last ice caps to melt away before the Arctic becomes a battleground to all those who will do anything to claim their territorial right. But what we should not fail to recognise is that Russia is using this as a key strategic move to bring whatever disputes it has with NATO and other such countries to a region where it will be in the reigns of control and not allow itself to be once again be militarily weakened. While our attention lies on other regions in the world, the Arctic should not be forgotten for what occurs there could potentially have devastating repercussions throughout the entire world.

Ilayda Nijhar