2015: Russia’s Foreign Challenges

By Ilayda Nijhar

2015 has proven to be a challenging year for Russia in terms of its foreign affairs and relationships with other global powers. 2015 carried the weight of the previous years problems including that of the situation in Ukraine, the ongoing economic decline and the escalating conflict in Syria. President Vladimir Putin has been under constant pressure both internally and from outside parties and at times has had to abate Russian interests in order to maintain balanced relations with Western nations. It has also been a somewhat mournful year for the Russian people with the crash of a Russian airliner in Egypt killing 224 people with many, including State Security, claiming that the downing was a deliberate act of terror.

The continuing Ukrainian crisis had been a key priority for Russia at the beginning of the year, with a want on both sides to prevent any further conflict to occur. The situation presently is stable following the ceasefire deal which was agreed to in early February by Putin, the Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, France’s Hollande and German Chancellor Merkel and has so far proven to be successful. The present status of the Ukrainian issue has reflected well on Russian foreign policy.

Perhaps the most crucial and significant event of the year for Russia in relation to its foreign diplomacy was its stance on the crisis in Syria. Towards the later half of the year we witnessed Russia put forward a more extensive strategy to tackle the ongoing situation in Syria. It was an approach strategically designed to show further support to the Assad regime, with Russia being a strong advocate of the Ba’ath party for some time. The military interference within Syria which began on September 30th was the first of its kind since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nonetheless, the operation saw Russia intervening via air strikes and various other forms of military exercises. What makes this event so crucial is Putin’s open criticism of the Wests approach towards the Syrian matter and his condemnation of their inaction towards defeating ISIS. Naturally, this has caused much disturbance throughout the political arena. Remarks included Putin stating that US foreign policy failed to show support and commitment towards cooperating in the fight against the Islamic State in the region and further that their fight against ISIL was in ‘word only’ and that their strategy lacked any form of substantial action. As such, Russian relations with the US continue to weaken. The situation intensified in early December when the Russian foreign ministry accused the US and its Nato ally Turkey of aiding ISIS with oil trade. Such a charge was grounded in the US failing to provide information relating to the transport routes in the region which led to Russia believing that they were not being fully cooperative with eradicating ISIS, something which they had vowed to do. Diplomatic relations with Turkey has also deteriorated following the downing of a Russian warplane earlier last month. The matter is one of much dispute. Turkey holds a firm belief that the Russian aircraft was violating its airspace and was left with no choice but to shoot it down following 10 warnings. Russia conversely strongly argues that the warplane was within Syrian territory and that the attack was deliberate on behalf of the Turkish state. As a result, the skirmish has led to tension levels rising on both sides with economic sanctions being imposed and trade halted by Russia leading to the previously close alliance to slowly desist.

But what does this mean for Russia? The intervention in Syria can most definitely be seen as the most significant foreign issue of the year, but has yet to prove worthwhile. So far it remains unclear whether or not the Russian backing of the Assad regime has been beneficial towards ensuring stability within the region. Yet we must also consider the Russian intervention in Syria through Russia’s objective of annihilating ISIL strong holds, an aim which some Nato member nations still choose to overlook. Perhaps, however, Russia’s operation in Syria is based on a wider national objective. Through openly criticising and, to an extent condemning the approach taken by other nations, Russia is reaffirming its position as a major world power and displaying its ability to shift the balance of power as it wishes. Russia has most definitely been more outspoken with its opinions this past year and has shown that it is willing to compromise fragile partnerships in order to pursue what it believes as the right course of action. 2015 saw the beginning of a complicated diplomatic journey, which can only lead to us to wonder what Russia will decide to carry out in 2016.

ILAYDA NIJHAR

14 January 2016